How did my predictions for 2014 turn out?


Unknown3Last year at around this date I wrote a blog post making some predictions about the gaming industry for 2014. I don’t know why the post is no longer on my site (I must have deleted it accidentally), but luckily it was reproduced by the good folk over at Red Wii Bundle. For this post, I want to revisit those predictions and see which of them came true. Then I will make some predictions for 2015.

My predictions for January – February 2014:

“Multiplatform games are released on PS 4 and the X-1, as well as versions with slightly toned down visuals on the PS 3 and the 360. Some exclusives come out for each console. The Final Fantasy X remaster and Lightning Returns games send off the 7th generation in style. Nintendo loses more third party support for the Wii U, but promises to step up first party titles and new IP productions. Commentary about the future of gaming being in mobile platforms abound. Steamies say they can build a $300.00 gaming PC.”

What happened:

Multiplayer games were released on the two powerhouse systems with toned down versions in the previous gen counterparts. Examples include Tomb Raider, Black Flag: Freedom Cry, and Lords of Shadow 2. This trend continued with South Park: Stick of Truth, Destiny, and Divinity: Original Sin. One of the major stocks and financing websites on the internet made the argument that the future of gaming is mobile. I still stand by the position that before the future of gaming becomes mobile, there will need to be a true all in one computing device with enough processing power to run the latest games. People still argued that you can make a 300$ gaming computer. You can build a 300$ computer, but I wouldn’t call it a gaming computer.

Veredict: Mostly accurate

My predictions for March – May 2014:

“Seventh generation consoles lose support, articles about the death of the PS 3 and the 360 abound. Solid titles start coming out on the PS 4 and the X – 1. Nintendo announces a new HD mature looking Zelda title and a new Super Mario 3D World title along some other titles. 3DS titles keep pouring in. A new “special edition 3DS XL” is announced. PS 4 begins to outsell Microsoft by almost 100% (that’s a 2:1 rate), Wii U sales begin to pick up, but not by much.”

What happened:

Seventh generation consoles didn’t entirely lose support. Towards the end of the year some eighth gen only titles were released, but the 7th gen consoles, with the exception of the Wii, still had a steady stream of titles. I wouldn’t call Hyrule Warriors or the upcoming Zelda title “mature”, but a Zelda game was announced and another released within the margin of error. There was no new 3D World title announced, but Mario Kart 8 was released. 3DS titles kept pouring in. PS 4 began outselling the X-1, bu the end of the year the PS 4 sold 16 million units with the X-1 selling 9 million units. The Persona Q themed 3DS was announced. Wii U sales began to pick up, but not by much.

Veredict: Hit and Miss. Nintendo console predictions were spot-on, the other predictions were a bit of a miss.

Predictions for Summer 2014:

“Nintendo puts out a special edition 3DS XL (announced a few months previous), announces another special edition later in the year. Atlus announces a Persona crossover game with a Sega IP – speculation points to Shining Force or Phantasy Star. More AAA games come out on the X-1 and the PS 4. PS 4 sales dominate the X-1, Microsoft announces 100$ price drop (maybe a Kinect-less version), Wii U sales remain stable. 3DS keeps printing money. Some really great mobile games come out. Something about how everyone has a computer so buy a video card or something.

What happened:

The 3DS models were not released during summer. Nintendo held them off for October. Atlus announced a crossover game with a Nintendo IP, but the announcement happened earlier in the year (Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem). AAA games were released, the PS 4 dominated sales, Microsoft announced a Kinect was released at 100$ less. Wii U sales remained stable. The 3DS kept printing money. I admit I stopped caring about mobile games, but I’m going to go on Monument Valley and Heartstone and call it a “close enough” prediction. Something about video cards.

Veredict: Correct predictions, slightly wrong timeline.

Predictions for August – October 2014:

More games come out. AAA exclusives are fewer, they are more often multiplatform. Nintendo starts seeing increased Wii U sales and securing 3rd party support, specially in Japanese markets. Operation Rainfall II happens. Not a lot of exciting news outside of a few kid-friendly Christmas titles (Skylanders whatever comes next, for example). A new Pokemon title comes out.”

What happened:

AAA turned more multiplatform, less exclusive. Nintendo did not get a lot of 3rd party support outside of the kid friendly Skylanders / Infinity / Lego stuff. People are clamoring for Xenoblade Chronicles X. Not a lot of exciting stuff. I’m going to call “close enough” on Pokemon Alpha Sapphire / Omega Ruby (which released on November).

Veredict: Mostly good.

Predictions for November – December 2014:

“Major franchises announce or release new versions of their games. Black Friday deals announced. New collectors 3DS XL retails for 170$ with some gift card or extra games, Wii U Black Friday bundle includes an extra game and controller for 200$, followed by a permanent 250$ price mark afterwards. X – 1 announces a bundle with a full Killer Instinct unlock and some Live credit. Sony announces a 3 game bundle for 300$, followed by a permanent $350 price mark. Big holiday titles release. Nintendo’s lineup looks great. PS 4 and X – 1 sales begin to dwindle. Atlus releases a numbered Phantasy Star title where one planet features several Persona-type quests.

The Wii U leads the PS 4 and X-1 in sales, ,3DS sales begin to dwindle, games still sell incredibly well. A few new IPs come out. Sega still has not released Phantasy Star Online 2 to US audiences.”

What happened:

A lot of remakes came out for the eighth generation consoles, thus landing The Last of Us The Remake the title of best PS 4 title and the Halo collection the best title on the X-1. Black Friday deals failed, but there were 3DS XL collector’s editions with pre-installed Mario games in them for 150$. Wii U Black Friday bundles flopped at 300$, but there was a recent 250$ special on Target for the New Mario Bros / Nintendoland bundle. There was no X-1 Killer Instinct bundle, but the Assassin’s Creed Unity bundle is a thing. Nintendo’s lineup looks AMAZING with Bayonetta 2, Mario Kart 8, Captain Toad, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Hyrule Warriors, Sonic Boom, Skylanders Trap Team, Infinity 2.0, Lego Batman, and even Watch Dogs. PS 4 and X-1 sales actually kept steady.

None of my wishful thinking came true. There was no Phantasy Star V, the Wii U did not surpass the PS 4 or the X-1 in sales (although it’s catching up at a quick pace), the 3DS is still going strong despite the announcement of the New New 3DS next year, there is no Phantasy Star Online 2 for US audiences.

Veredict: The real predictions were fairly accurate. The wishful thinking ones did not happen.

Overall:

I think I give myself a B to B + for predictions. Let’s see how I do with predictions for 2015.

Advertisements

About Quijano

Johansen Quijano is a professor of English in The University of Texas at Arlington, where he is currently pursuing a Ph.D. in English. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree in the Teaching of English to Speakers of Other Languages (TESOL), a Master’s Degree in Curriculum and Development focusing on TESOL, and a Master’s Degree in English Literature. He has published and presented on a variety of topics including video game studies, popular culture studies, education, teaching methodology, language acquisition, romantic poetry, and victorian literature. His research interests include the above-mentioned topics, narrative, interactivity, simulation, new media in general, and 18th century literature. He also enjoys creative writing (fiction, historical fiction, and poetry), and reading all kinds of epic literary works - from the Epic Poem of Gilgamesh to Robert Jordan’s Wheel of Time series.

Posted on December 18, 2014, in Video Game Commentary and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: